Ukraine is Moving to Social Explosion

Anbei die Analyse des „Centre for Information and Analysis“ (Ukraine) über die aktuelle Situation vor Ort.
Ukraine is Moving to Social Tension
Fake government’s reform increase social dissatisfaction of Ukraine’s citizens. One major factor is the growing social tensions because of the tariff policy in the housing and communal infrastructure sector. In the near future the main task for the government will be search for the answer to the question: "How long can Ukrainian state survive if the living wage for people is less than the average amount of payment for utility bills?". Just as another open question: "How long in the absence of reforms Western financial institutions will keep Ukraine from default?".
The increase in tariffs for gas and electricity were in the end of heating season in April this year. However, due to the rapid impoverishment of the population this will lead to an increase in non-payments and debt accumulation for housing and communal services. In the autumn of this year local elections are planned that coincide with the start of the new heating season of 2015-2016. All political forces, without exception, will speculate on this topic. Government initiatives to struggle with debtors and selling their property may provoke a social explosion in most regions of Ukraine. This could be taken as advantage of those who support territorial division of Ukraine and by pro-Russian political forces. Development of this negative scenario could be contributed by flawed law enforcement authorities and their inability to change the situation. There are clear associations in society of present leadership in law enforcement agencies with the previous corrupt authorities of "Yanukovych regime." Its representatives at the middle managerial level are still in power and influence decision-making at the local levels.
Social tension will increase. This applies to the threat of terrorism and conflict between rival oligarchic clans and their security agencies and police. For Ukraine’s leadership it will be harder to justify its low effectiveness by the "factor of war" with Russia. The rapid decline in living standards will increase the number of apolitical population. However, it mobilizes the most active members of civil society to be ready for radical actions against the authorities. In Ukrainian society the number of people who are ready to assume on themselves functions of law enforcement is rapidly increasing.
The current government of Yatsenyuk is transitional. Its representatives alongside anti-social IMF demands are not able to perform any serious reforms. Despite government announcements the system of receiving housing subsidies for the population is extremely confusing and bureaucratic. The population is not beneficial to declare their assets and employers pay an official salary. Against the rising of unemployment there are quite a few effective mechanisms to change the situation. Calls for the government’s resignation are heard more often. In parliament, the number of supporters of this scenario is growing. Neither Parliament nor the government has big trust in society. The situation with the President is not much better. After a surge of political trust to Poroshenko immediately after his election in 2014, there is a continuous fall of his rating. Appearance of foreigners in government demonstrated their inability to resist the bureaucracy and further revealed the lack of qualified human resources in Ukrainian politics.
Centre for information and analysis «Content and Consulting», Roman Rukomeda, rrukomeda, mob.: +38 (050) 4478238; Bohdan Sumenko, sumno-meni, mob.: +38 (067) 3210425

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