Europe has seen a series of increasingly bold drone incursions attributed to Russia, marking a shift in hybrid warfare targeting NATO allies. These attacks not only test military defenses but also aim to disrupt civilian infrastructure and public life. It is nothing less than an armed attack on Europe.
Major Drone Incursion into Poland – what really happened
Between 23:30 on September 9 and 06:45 on September 10, 19 to 23 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace, entering through Belarus. The swarm attack spanned over seven hours, marking an unprecedented escalation in scale and coordination. Polish air defenses responded swiftly, deploying F-16 fighters, supported by Dutch F-35 aircraft, Italian AWACS surveillance planes, and German Patriot missile systems to intercept the drones. Up to four drones were confirmed shot down, mostly by Dutch F-35s. Despite this, debris fell across several Polish regions, including Oleśno near the Baltic coast, and multiple areas near the eastern border such as Bychawka Trzecia, Cześniki, and Wielki Łan.
The incursions forced the closure of four major Polish airports (Warsaw International, Warsaw Modlin, Rzeszów–Jasionka, and Lublin) until the threat subsided, creating significant civilian disruption. A stray Polish missile inadvertently struck a residential building in Lublin Voivodeship, though no explosions occurred. The Polish government invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty, articulating this as an unprecedented attack on NATO territory. This swift invocation of collective consultation mechanisms underscored the gravity of the breach and the wider strategic threat perceived by the alliance.
Drone Disruptions in Denmark, September 2025
But this incident was not the first and only of its kind. Around mid-September, Copenhagen experienced multiple drone sightings and incursions resulting in temporary closure of airports and increased military alertness. Danish authorities labeled the attacks as professional, hybrid operations with a high likelihood of Russian state involvement. The incidents exposed significant vulnerabilities in Danish airspace surveillance and airport security, prompting Denmark to strengthen its defensive posture and coordination with NATO allies. While no physical damage or casualties were reported, the economic and psychological impact was considerable.
No new phenomena – Russia constantly attacking NATO
In addition to Poland and Denmark, several Baltic States including Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have reported repeated Russian drone and aircraft incursions over the past months. For example, Estonia recorded aerial violations involving drones and fighter jets testing NATO response readiness. Romania and Bulgaria have reported sporadic airspace breaches and near encounters with suspected Russian drones and electronic warfare activities. Lithuania’s military noted an increase in Russian activity close to its borders, including reconnaissance drone flights.
Broader Pattern of Russian Hybrid Warfare in Europe
These recent drone incidents are part of a sustained pattern of hybrid aggression by Russia over the past five years, aimed at destabilizing European security without provoking full-scale war. From 2020 onward, Russian drones and aircraft have repeatedly violated airspace in the Baltics, Poland, Romania, and Sweden. These aerial maneuvers are often coordinated with cyberattacks, sabotage of critical infrastructure, and disinformation campaigns targeting European democratic institutions. The coordinated drone swarm attacks in 2025 coincide with Russia-Belarus Zapad-2025 military exercises, recalling the pretext used before the 2022 Ukraine invasion. This suggests a deliberate strategy of incremental escalation and psychological pressure on NATO and EU members.
What does it mean for Europe/NATO? Are we at war with Russia?
Russia’s use of swarming drone tactics serves multiple strategic objectives: testing NATO air defenses, generating fear and disruption in civilian life, and imposing economic costs by forcing airport shut-downs and infrastructure protection measures. By engaging in gradual hybrid warfare, Russia aims to probe political resolve and fracture allied unity without triggering Article 5 collective defense responses.
Looking ahead, such drone provocations are likely to intensify and diversify, targeting critical infrastructures such as transportation hubs, communication networks, and energy grids across Western Europe. The planned establishment of a “drone wall” by the EU aims to create a monitored interception zone, but evolving drone technologies will present ongoing challenges.
Western Europe must prepare for increased disruption of public life and economic activities caused by these attacks. Strengthening integrated air defense systems, improving cross-border intelligence sharing, and enhancing civilian preparedness will be key to mitigating the impact of Russian hybrid warfare as it adapts and escalates.
It is solely on Western Europe and NATO when to define the threats as armed attacks and the status as an armed conflict. For Russia, it still is the case.
