Energy in Europe from a security perspective

Energy in Europe from a security perspective

Energy independence serves as a fundamental pillar for Europe’s strategic resilience, particularly in the face of hostile actions by actors such as Russia. The European Union’s experience during the Russian invasion of Ukraine underscored longstanding vulnerabilities associated with its reliance on imported fossil fuels, which Russia exploited as a geopolitical instrument. In response, the REPowerEU initiative was initiated, with the objective of swiftly reducing dependency on Russian energy and diversifying supply sources through the acceleration of renewable energy projects and the establishment of new partnerships with LNG suppliers from the United States, Qatar, and Norway.

The REPowerEU campaign represents a comprehensive and ambitious plan to significantly reduce Europe’s dependence by accelerating the continent’s transition to clean, sustainable energy. REPowerEU focuses on three key pillars: enhancing energy efficiency, diversifying energy supplies away from Russia toward more reliable and varied partners, and rapidly scaling up the production of renewable energy. The plan acknowledges the pressing need to phase out the import of coal, oil, gas, and nuclear materials from Russia in a coordinated manner to safeguard Europe’s energy security and market stability. It aims to eliminate all imports of Russian pipeline and liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear materials by the conclusion of 2027. To achieve this objective, EU member states are mandated to submit detailed national diversification plans, and substantial investments are directed toward modernizing energy infrastructure, expanding electricity grids, and developing a continent-wide hydrogen network. These transformations are reinforced by regulatory reforms and economic incentives designed to promote energy savings, including enhanced binding energy efficiency targets and fiscal measures that encourage the adoption of efficient technologies in residential, commercial, and industrial settings.

Financing serves as a fundamental pillar for REPowerEU, with the European Commission allocating approximately €300 billion to support member states in implementing these transformative reforms. This substantial financial commitment draws upon funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, the Innovation Fund, and other EU and national investment resources. This substantial financial commitment underpins efforts to reduce energy consumption, diversify supply chains, and accelerate the deployment of renewable energy sources, including solar and wind power, which now constitute nearly half of the EU’s electricity generation. The project has had a notable impact in stabilizing energy prices and securing supplies, effectively diminishing Russia’s ability to utilize energy as a political instrument while strengthening Europe’s green transition and energy sovereignty. The campaign promotes unity within Europe through collaborative purchasing mechanisms for gas and other essential commodities, ensuring that member states refrain from destructive competition for supplies and instead leverage collective bargaining power. As Thibault Besnier from the College of Europe aptly states, “Since the Energy Union, the EU has clearly enhanced its role in the governance of energy policies. This transformation was catalyzed by the momentum generated around environmental concerns and the crisis precipitated by the war in Ukraine. Consequently, this authority has gained increasing acceptance from other energy governance actors due to the EU’s restraint and emphasis on soft law and flexibility.”

This shift not only mitigates the risks associated with weaponized energy supply disruptions but also fortifies the continent’s resilience against economic coercion and enhances its political autonomy.

Energy independence is undoubtedly advantageous for Europe.

Enhanced energy independence directly benefits European industry by alleviating longstanding dependencies on oil and gas from volatile producer regions. Energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals and metals are particularly susceptible when prices fluctuate due to supply chain disruptions or market manipulation. The volatility of oil and gas markets, particularly compounded by geopolitical tensions, has historically resulted in significant fluctuations in industrial production costs. Companies like BASF and Thyssenkrupp have already experienced severe financial setbacks and production reductions due to high and unpredictable energy prices stemming from market dependency. As Europe continues its transition to renewable energy sources, production costs are anticipated to become more stable. Renewables, characterized by fixed capital costs and the absence of fuel price volatility, provide industries with the opportunity to plan investments and scale operations more efficiently, thereby enhancing long-term competitiveness.

European industries confront escalating energy costs that jeopardize their global competitiveness, particularly in energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals and metals. Since 2020, energy prices have experienced a surge, with Europe’s industrial energy costs now substantially higher than those in the United States and China. This has compelled companies to reduce production, contemplate relocation, and risks contracting European industry by 10% by 2030. High prices are attributed to geopolitical tensions, reliance on imported fuels, regulatory disparities, and the transition costs associated with renewable energy adoption. Renewable energy adoption presents a glimmer of hope by stabilizing prices and mitigating import dependency, supported by European policies that promote clean energy investments and long-term contracts. However, permitting delays and uneven national measures remain challenges. Enhancing energy efficiency and fostering stronger collaboration between industries and governments are paramount for effectively managing costs.

To maintain competitiveness and security, Europe must accelerate the deployment of renewable energy, bridge investment gaps, and establish stable, long-term energy pricing mechanisms. Without decisive action, the viability of critical industries and jobs will be jeopardized, undermining Europe’s industrial future.

For consumer prices, the path to energy independence promises substantial downstream consequences. Energy serves as a crucial input in the pricing of nearly every product, consequently, high and volatile power costs lead to inflation and diminish the purchasing power of households and businesses. As Europe transitions towards more stable, domestically produced renewable energy, the variable costs associated with fossil fuels are expected to decline, along with production costs and the final prices faced by consumers. In the immediate term, the transition may entail increased investment costs and some price uncertainty, but research indicates that technological advancements, such as the exponential reduction in the costs of solar panels and batteries, tend to make long-term projections of energy inflation overly pessimistic. Over time, energy independence thus becomes a guarantee of both economic stability and affordability, ensuring that European enterprises and consumers are no longer subject to geopolitical shocks or price manipulations by external suppliers.

Europe with ambitious aspirations but energy demand higher.

Today, we must confront the reality that Europe faces a challenge in meeting its energy demands. While the continent produces a significant portion of its energy domestically, it still heavily relies on imports to fulfill its total energy requirements.

According to Eurostat’s Energy 2025 report, renewable energy accounted for 46% of the EU’s energy production in 2023, followed by nuclear energy at 29%, solid fuels at 17%, natural gas at 5%, and crude oil at 3%. However, the EU’s energy import dependency rate stood at 58% in 2023, indicating that nearly 60% of the EU’s energy needs were met by imports, underscoring its ongoing reliance on external sources.

The energy mix across member states exhibits significant variability. While some countries have achieved near-complete reliance on renewable energy, others remain dependent on fossil fuels or imports.

In the electricity sector, the European Electricity Review 2025 by Ember revealed that renewables accounted for approximately 47% of electricity generation in 2024, with solar power surpassing coal for the first time. Fossil fuels declined to 29% of power generation, highlighting progress in reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels but not eliminating it.

The European Commission’s overview confirmed primary energy production in the EU at around 23,566 petajoules in 2022. Renewable energy production experienced steady growth, albeit offset by declining fossil fuel and nuclear production. Despite these advancements, the region remains a net energy importer, with imports filling the gap between domestic production and demand.

The primary challenge lies in the fact that while European countries are actively increasing renewable energy production and decreasing their dependence on fossil fuels, the EU continues to import more than half of the energy it consumes. This situation underscores the urgent need for accelerated energy transition and diversification to enhance energy security.

Comprehensive and multifaceted energy strategy is essential

To achieve comprehensive energy security and bridge the gap between energy demand and production, Europe necessitates a multifaceted strategy centered around the expansion of renewable energy, the enhancement of efficiency, the strengthening of resilience, and the fostering of robust cooperation. A pivotal component of this strategy involves accelerating the deployment of renewable technologies such as wind, solar, and green hydrogen, concurrently with the modernization of grids and the expansion of energy storage capabilities. This approach mitigates reliance on fossil fuel imports, particularly from regions characterized by geopolitical tensions, while simultaneously stabilizing energy supply. The European Union’s Action Plan for Affordable Energy underscores the significance of long-term contracts, such as Power Purchase Agreements, and expedited permitting processes to facilitate the mobilization of renewable investments and the realization of electrification projects, particularly within energy-intensive sectors such as steel.

Energy efficiency holds equal importance. Enhanced efficiency across various industries, modes of transportation, and buildings leads to a reduction in overall consumption and the peak of demand, thereby alleviating the strain on generating capacity. Incentives and financing frameworks, such as the European Energy Efficiency Financing Coalition, promote the adoption of advanced technologies and energy-saving practices. Interconnected infrastructure and a fully integrated internal energy market facilitate resource sharing and facilitate the balancing of supply and demand across international borders. Plans to deepen electricity market integration and enhance cross-border grid connections bolster resilience and adaptability.

Comprehensive energy security also demands robust governance, transparency, and systematic risk planning. The European Union established the Energy Union Task Force to enhance coordination and governance, with a primary focus on diverse supply sources, infrastructure protection, and flexible capacity mechanisms to manage the variability associated with renewable energy. Crucially, Europe’s strategy embraces the electrification of transport, heating, and industrial processes to catalyze the decarbonization of the economy while simultaneously reducing fossil fuel dependence. Long-term objectives aspire to reduce energy import dependency from 60% in 2022 to approximately 13% by 2050, driven by the generation of nearly 70% of electricity by 2030 through renewable energy sources.

Thomas Franke

Thomas Franke has been working for more than 30 years in the field of security and defense. One of the main focuses of his recent activities is the "Forum Vernetzte Sicherheit gGmbH," which he founded. This is a news portal and network dedicated to promoting interdisciplinary exchange on all essential aspects of security. During his work as an advisor in the German Bundestag, Franke became familiar with the concept of synergistic security. It's NATO affiliation is the "comprehensive approach". He adopted this approach and consistently emphasized security aspects during his numerous roles as soldier, researcher, press officer and publisher. Through this, Franke gained expertise not only in the military domain but also in financial security, corporate risk management, political and societal risks. Among other initiatives, Franke advocates for research projects that enable a new security architecture through collaboration between civilian, governmental, and scientific actors (Public-Private Partnerships/PPPs). Until March 2021, he led a bilateral research project on security in pharmaceutical logistics, funded by Germany's Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and Austria's Ministry for Innovation and Technology (BMVIT). Most recently, Franke is mainly focused on cognitive warfare, Enterprise Architecture Management and human performance modification for the Federal Armed Forces of Germany.