Anbei die Analyse des „Centre for Information and Analysis“ (Ukraine) über die aktuelle Situation vor Ort.
The start of constitutional reform launches a major political reformatting of the entire state system of Ukraine and the creation of a new social contract accompanied by the active involvement of external actors in the process, where Russia, EU and the US lobby their own edits and configuration of the new Ukrainian state’s future.
The first meeting of the Constitutional Commission, chaired by Speaker Volodymyr Groisman has identified key areas of Constitutional reform: human rights, justice reform and organization of government, decentralization of power and development of local self-government. Preparation and voting of amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine on decentralization by July 15 is planned for their entry into force prior to the October local elections. Such plans have considerable potential to fail due to a conflict of interest internal business groups and external actors (especially the EU, the USA and Russia) in question of the main characteristics of the new Ukrainian Constitution. Slow and inefficient reforms in Ukraine over the last year shows that the most likely changes on decentralization and others (particularly on judicial reform) will not be accepted (at least at the stage of support in Parliament at 300 votes) before the election. This means that local elections with high probability will be organized and held according to the old rules.
The rapid development of Ukrainian Constitutional changes, in which directly involved the EU, and Russia is trying to indirectly affect some separate provisions means the risk of imposing Ukraine to certain compromise between the EU and Russia about new type of government. If the US will not control process of creating a new framework of Ukrainian political system through President Poroshenko and among loyal to him Ukrainian officials, Washington runs the risk to receive Moscow’s federalization of Ukraine under the mask of decentralization. However, Germany and France will actively lobby such favorable revision of the Ukrainian Constitution, as they urgently need to stop the financial and economic isolation of Russia through „conventional“ solution of the Ukrainian question even without a return of Crimea under the jurisdiction of the Ukraine and completing real withdrawal of Russian troops from Donbas, regaining full control to the Ukraine the state border with Russia. Most Ukrainian local members of the Constitutional Commission will be used as agents of influence mainly by Russia and used as a blocking force of individual initiatives of President Poroshenko.
Accelerating the process of amending the Constitution of Ukraine shows the actual end of the old Ukrainian state, which was a hybrid of the old Soviet system and the young generation of post-Soviet elite, and attempt to create a new social contract in Ukraine. No wonder even the leaders of the so called “Donetsk People Republic”, including Purgin expressed intention to join the process. Russia actively tries to lobby their corrections to the process of the Constitutional Commission, which will be used by the current Ukrainian authorities as a card for bargaining with Moscow. EU requirements for strict adherence of Ukraine to the Minsk-2 agreements and Venice Commission recommendations will be the main instrument of the EU (primarily Germany) in search of new formulas for preserving joint Russian-European control over Ukraine.
Centre for information and analysis «Content and Consulting», rrukomeda, mob.: +38 (050) 4478238; Bohdan Sumenko, sumno-meni, mob.: +38 (067) 3210425